Thursday, September 20, 2007

Currency

I don't understand currency markets all that well, but I do know that the Fed's recent half point rate cut should push the U.S. dollar even lower. It hit 1.40 to the Euro today, which is only interesting to me because I remember when the Euro first issued, the idea was that it would be roughly equal to one dollar. It immediately dropped to .83 or something, and Americans were all like LOL ur Yoorow sux.

This guy writes a great article about how China must feel after the recent Fed move. I don't know how accurate his views are, I just like that he described the U.S. stock market boost this week as "drunken bacchanalia".

My question is, what the hell is wrong with the NT$? Why are we still at 33 : 1 to the U.S. dollar? It almost seems like the U.S. dollar is not falling, but only that the Euro is rising. NT is 46.42 to the Euro, which is going to make this Springs chess lessons at La Pera Bistro even more expensive. Easy to sell tools though.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Canada hit dollar parity today.

Chaon said...

And the NT$ is at 32.99. This is totally screwing up my plans to return to the U.S. and buy New Hampshire.

Red A said...

The Euro (Alt 0128 in Windows) € was originally designed to be set slightly higher than the dollar, I believe it was to be 1.10.

It started out very weak, instead. I bought some at that point and will have to consider cashing out at some point.

The NT$ should also be stronger, but I think political issues and low interest rates work against it. I believe Morgan Stanley did have one model that said it was actually overvalued, too.

The NT$ to all other currencies basically tracks the US dollar. You'd think there would be a separate demand for say NTD/Euro but there apparently isn't.

Have you ever seen the Big Max index? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index
It says the NT$ is undervalued by 33%.

BTW, I started a policy of selling to European customers in Euros and it has worked out very well...if I had quite in dollars, they make extra profit. Instead we do.