The past six years have been disastrous for Taiwan's economy. Right now, not only do we have a nose-diving currency, higher unemployment and a growing wealth gap, but inflation is also at it's worst in decades.A quick exchange there led to last week's blogfight.
Question & Answer session follows this graph:
Q: What kind of economic analysis are you going to do of that graph to draw conclusions about the current situation in Taiwan?
A: None. The NT$ / US$ exchange rate is artificial. No economist would try to draw a conclusion from that chart.
Q. So what is that chart doing there?
A. We can look at that chart and determine that the Taiwan dollar is nosediving.
Q. I thought you just said that no economist would say that.
A. We are not practicing economics. We are practicing Markonomics.
Q. Markonomics? Sounds interesting! Tell me more.
A. Markonomics is awesome. First, you pick an assertion that supports your ideological preferences. Then you declare it to be true. After that, you go out and find data that supports your assertion.
Q. What about data that doesn't support your assertion?
A. Ignore it. You may have to invent your own methodologies to calculate new numbers that work. Be persistent.
Q. What if someone calls shenanigans on your data and methods?
A. You have your friends defend your assertion via Ad hominem and Argumentum ad populum.
Q. Aren't those logical fallacies?
A. Not in Markonomics.
Q. What do I do with people who keep harping on the limited data set?
A. Use the traditional Usenet tactics of: Dodge & dissemble. Spew sundry sophistries.
Q. Nice alliteration.
A. Thanks.
Q. Is that all I need to know?
A. Not yet. Once you have your hand-picked data, you then go to online forums and post your assertion in order to bait others.
Q. You go trolling.
A. No. Trolling is the intentional posting of false assertions in order to provoke. Markonomists intentionally post assertions that will inflame others, but since the Markonomist has already determined that the assertion is true, it's not trolling.
Q. What is it called then?
A. Leprechauning.
Q. Sounds like a fairly subtle distinction. Do you have some kind of graphic aid to help me remember this term?
A. Sure. Here you go:
Q. Thanks so much for this. I've been going about things all wrong, looking at data and trying to figure out propositions it supports. Now I'll just make up my own propositions. This is going to save a lot of time, not to mention all that money spent on books.
A. You are welcome. Use some of that saved money to buy me a beer.
16 comments:
In my humble experience, the Taiwan dollar mainly tracks the USD (and supposedly even tracks the Yen vs. Dollar at that.) In other words, looking at NTD vs. Euro is the same as looking at the USD vs. Euro.
Initially I thought there should be a separate market for NT$ and Euros, but there is not really. So the only relationship you need to check is USD/NTD (and maybe the Yen/USD)
The NT$ has stagnated for the past few years - much to my dismay as I hold a lot of them hoping for strong appreciation vs. the dollar. I'm hoping a Ma victory might unleash it to appreciate some more. (note the Yen also has disappointed and remember that I just mentioned the NT$ sort of follows the Yen's lead.)
"much to my dismay as I hold a lot of them hoping for strong appreciation vs. the dollar. I'm hoping a Ma victory might unleash it to appreciate some more."
Hey now, you may have given up on local suppliers, but some of us are still trying to manufacture stuff here.
According to the last Economist's Big Mac Index, the NT$ is undervalued by about 33%. (Same as the Yen)
The Korean won was only undervalued by 8%.
The Euro is overvalued at 22%
And that's in July 2007!
Karl,
Actually, I still ship from Taiwan. About 30-40% of our products are still made here.
So I have sort of hedged myself.
Karl, I made the currency graph because people disagreed with me that the TWD was falling.
I caused confusion and probably annoyed you due to my mistake in saying real gdp when I had actually analyzed nominal GDP. And it was an honest investigation. I offered to take data from other sources anyone wanted to submit, and the thread is still open to anyone who wants to make suggestions about calculation methods.
Actually, I had started compiling a the comparison of Thailand, the Phillipines and Singapore that you had requested, using similar OEC-based GDP figures. I suppose, from this post, that it wasn't a sincere request.
One more thing. Poagao has been the target of plenty of ad-hominems from various bloggers I know, but I've never seen him making them. Ever.
Oh, yeah. I forgot to ask. You know what my blog name means, right?
It's 塗說. Think about that. It's not like I've claimed to be an "expert" at anything, though I may get into the debates.
(I used toshuo rather than tushuo because the name tushuo was taken.)
One more thing. Poagao has been the target of plenty of ad-hominems from various bloggers I know, but I've never seen him making them. Ever.
What? He made one right on your blog in the first post of your thread, a blanket attack on everyone who disagreed with you. I quote:
"It seems that as we get closer to elections anyone saying that the economy is anything but rosy is criticized in some circles as a politically motivated attack on the DPP."
Which you promptly agreed with in the very next comment.
No, I suppose you're right. TC doesn't make personal ad homs.....
Michael
Mark, your currency graphs and your conclusions "the TWD has fallen off a cliff" are so ridiculous that I can't even tell if you are being disingenuous, or you are that far out of your league in these matters.
Please do not gather comparison data for the other Asian countries. My sincerity has nothing to do with the fact that you have bought an urban legend hook, line, and sinker.
Actually, I think you could make an argument that Taiwan could be doing better, but there's so much smoke in the air in those posts its a chore to figure out what's being argued.
Michael, I don't think that's an ad hominem.
An ad hominem is a logical fallacy in which an argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact or claim about the author of the argument. They follow this form:
1. Person A makes claim X.
2. Person B attacks person A.
3. Therefore X is false.
In his only comment on the thread, TC said:
"It seems that as we get closer to elections anyone saying that the economy is anything but rosy is criticized in some circles as a politically motivated attack on the DPP."
There was no person A making claim X that he disagreed with and he didn't attack anyone, either. He predicted that some people would take my observation of the fall of the NT as a "politically motivated attack on the DPP", but he didn't make any attacks of his own.
If he had commented that I don't have a relevant degree or made remarks about my level of intelligence as a basis for rejecting my claims, then that would have been an ad-hominem.
LOL. I can't believe you just wrote that last post. TC is obviously accusing anyone who would respond to your post of being motivated by political ideology. That he put in weasel words doesn't lessen its effect of simply painting anyone negatively who would respond to you.
Oh, and BTW, in an argument, hacking on someone for being driven by political ideology IS an irrelevant claim about about the author or the argument, and thus, is an ad hom.
Michael
That's a syllogistic fallacy.
1) I wrote something unfavorable about the economy.
2) TC said some people will criticize anything unfavorable about the economy as a political attack.
3) Some people criticize things as political attacks due to their own political reasons.
It does not follow that
4) TC said all who respond to what I wrote do so for their own political ideology.
Mark, you are embarrassing yourself.
Michael,
TC did not make an ad hominem argument. You fail logic 101, but fortunately you are not in law school. Law professors annually eat 1Ls for breakfast for what you've done.
Karl,
Did you pick up a dogeared copy of Black's at some flea market? My comment on Mark's blog was no argumentum ad populum, because I made no argument, except to say that Mark provided more complete evidence for his claims than you did for yours.
But as Georgie Jessel once said, thanks for getting my name in the papers.
-PR
Thanks for playing.
LEAVE MARK ALONE! Leave him alone! He's just an English teacher! He tries so hard to understand economics and philosophy! Leave him alone!
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